The turn of the century and the millennium have spurred a number of TV shows that have shown how things have really changed. To understand the process, go back in time to 1900. The homes would be similar but lacking amenities that we take for granted, such as central heat, air-conditioning and built-in appliances.

Your buyer would still want to see the home; it's just that you would probably show it to them in a carriage or a wagon instead of a car. Financing a home was more difficult then because it required a 50% down payment and the term was much shorter.

The National Association of REALTORS® organization was still in the future as was the Multiple Listing Service. Advertising was modest and limited to newspapers and simple handbills. Promotion was pretty much a word of mouth thing. Your reputation for getting the job done was instrumental in attracting business and a satisfied customer would surely lead to referrals.

Fundamentally, not a lot has changed. Technology has improved our living conditions through climate control, building materials, and appliances. Our maturing economy has made mortgage money available to more people than ever.

Unquestionably, the biggest change has come in communications. In just the past twenty years, we have seen remarkable advances. In the mid 80's, only title companies had fax machines, while today they're so common that people have them in their homes.

Cellular phones have allowed us to stay in constant touch with our customers and be on-call 24/7. The competition between vendors has driven the price down to ten cents a minute with no long distance or roaming charges. Even pre-teens carry cell phones today.

In just five years, e-mail has become such an important part of real estate that most agents don't feel they can survive without it. Agents can do more in less time at less expense. This has freed them to sell more real estate than ever before.

While TV and radio have successfully promoted real estate sales in the past, the Internet will replace these media because it is universally available on demand at a lower price. Incredibly, unlimited amounts of information are available on every subject imaginable.

Let's face it, some things are the same and some things are changing so fast that if you don't pay attention, you'd be lost if you simply blink your eyes.

The number of people using the Internet to assist in the home buying process is increasing. The demographic profile of the typical first-time buyer matches both the Internet buyer and the typical move-up buyer.

The amount of money pouring into web sites to attract buyers is phenomenal and the companies aren't necessarily the usual real estate players. We now see banks, utility companies, and other traditional outsiders now moving into real estate. In a nutshell, the competition is getting stronger and diversifying.

The Internet also shapes buyer preferences. They tend to research purchases at length before involving an agent. They are coming to our offices better informed than ever. Sometimes, they're more knowledgeable than us.

This new era promises things will be done differently. The changes may not be radical but they will occur more frequently. When you combine small changes on a frequent basis, it doesn't take long to effect total change.

For instance, let's say that the market experiences a 10% change each year over seven years. By the seventh year, the market is totally different. In our business it might only take three and a half to five years to see a complete transformation.

Economics 101 says that unless the market is expanding, one entity gains a larger share of the market only if another entity loses part of its share. In other words, when the pie stays the same, my bigger piece makes yours smaller.

This rate of change requires a new mindset on our part. We may be in our 50's or 60's, but we want to work forever. If our health allows us, we should be working well into our 70's. God willing, I hope to work until the day He is ready to bring me home.

That is why it grieves me so much when I hear agents, especially the ones who have been successful, say that they won't embrace change. They'll keep on doing things the way they have done them in the past and if it costs them a few transactions along the way, so be it. That is a defeatist's attitude. In my opinion, adapting from experience, learning and growing will be the currency of the successful agent. Some prognostications:

• There will be a larger disparity of income between the mega-agents and the average agent holding a license in the typical real estate office. The mega-agents will continue to produce a larger volume of units due to implementing better business practices and technology. They'll appear to be an office within an office but will exercise more control than brokers who are afraid of violating independent contractor laws. The mega-agents will have most of their assistants listed as employees.

• The mega-agents will have multiple web sites that promote services to a variety of markets. They will not participate in the Brokers referral or relocation services but will chose to affiliate for name recognition and support services.

• The successful agents will adopt strategies to offer higher levels of services to a smaller number of customers thereby increasing their loyalty and referrals.

• Services will finally be individually priced based on the consumer's needs. The mega-agents will try to sell the package by offering more value for the entire package.

• E-mail will have the greatest impact on the way real estate is sold in the next five years. It requires no postage, no printing, and allows for immediate gratification. As more and more people standardize on e-mail programs like Outlook, Eudora Pro, and Netscape Messenger, pictures and HTML mail will be widely used. This will be more effective and more efficient than regular mail.

• Internet-ready software like PREPÔ Suite 4.0 will make it easy for agents to e-mail to individuals or to groups and to send promotional material normally printed by e-mail. Programs will be automatically updated across the Internet and sales and technical tips can be pushed to the users desktops. Browsers are available in the program itself to connect to online mortgage brokers like E-Loan. Connections are built-in to send color printing to Internet printing companies that will return it to them the next day.

• Referral fees to legitimate third party companies and affinity groups will continue to take a large piece of the commission pie. Mega-agents will refuse them for the most part because of the increased amount of paperwork and lower dollars earned. New agents and low-earning agents will accept them but may not offer the high level of service.

• Internet learning will become the normal way because it is on-demand when the student needs it and is probably the most cost effective way of delivering it.

• There will continue to be a race to see who can get to the customer first in order to control the transaction. More competition will be felt from outside the immediate business such as the listing aggregators, mortgage companies, moving companies, and possibly even, utility companies.

• While the menu of services being offered on the Internet continues to increase, the need for a real estate professional will remain intact -- but changed. The Internet is data-rich but information-poor. Data-rich because there is so much out there; information-poor because someone with experience is needed to interpret it and apply it to each individual situation.

• This may be more of a perceived need because for most people, the largest investment they make in their lifetime is their home and they don't want to risk making a bad decision. The real estate professional plays an integral position in reassuring buyers and sellers.

• The Internet will influence mortgage banking through companies like E-Loan, iOwn, and Quicken Mortgage -- not to mention the online efforts of the largest Mortgage Bankers in the country such as Countrywide, Citibank, Norwest, and Washington Mutual. These companies will offer loan approval within 24 hours with reduced fees and the ability to close within the week.

• As baby-boomers reach maturity, there may be a declining demand for housing. The change of the tax law regarding principal residences will eventually slow the demand for the luxury homes that was artificially created because homeowners had to keep "moving up" to avoid taxes. As in other countries, the post baby-boomers will be satisfied in smaller homes and spend their money on travel and cosmetic surgery and health.

Pat Zaby is a nationally known real estate speaker and trainer. He has a degree in real estate and holds four professional designations. He has been a Realtor since 1968, has been involved with automating real estate agents for over 12 years and speaks to tens of thousands of people a year on the subject. For information about having Pat speak at your next event, contact Mechelle@patzaby.com.